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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000707718
If the U.S. is on a fiscally sustainable path, then higher U.S. government debt/output ratios should reliably predict higher future surpluses or lower real returns on Treasurys. In the post-war sample, we find no evidence for this. Neither future cash flows nor discount rates account for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660029
We use discounted cash flow analysis to measure a country's fiscal capacity. Crucially, the discount rate applied to projected cash flows includes a GDP risk premium. We apply our valuation method to the CBO's projections for the U.S. federal government's deficit between 2022 and 2051 and debt...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013190996
We develop a method for identifying and quantifying the fiscal channels that help finance government spending shocks. We define fiscal shocks as surprises in defense spending and show that they are more precisely identified when defense stock data are used in addition to aggregate macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462199
This paper uses the sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of interest payments on the U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462950
In this paper, I review US federal budget rules and present some evidence on their possible effects. From an analysis … of how components of the federal budget behaved under the different budget regimes, it appears that the rules did have … fiscal discipline on the political process of budget determination. The federal government has operated under a series of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464358
deficits in the state's general fund. Balanced budget limitations may be either prospective or beginning …-of-the-year requirements or retrospective or end-of-the-year requirements. Using budget data from a panel of 47 U.S. states for the period 1970 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473323
This paper summarizes state balanced budget requirements, and the available empirical evidence on the effect of these … typically restricted to part of the state budget, they frequently permit short term borrowing, and they lack formal enforcement … fiscal deficits emerge. This suggests that changing the federal budget process has the potential to affect federal fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473413
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013481012
economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged … would have followed with primary budget balance and without the distortions in real interest rates caused by surprise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337810