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Local Projections vs. VARs : Lessons From Thousands of DGPs
Li, Dake; Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel; Wolf, Christian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We conduct a simulation study of Local Projection (LP) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimators of structural impulse responses across thousands of data generating processes, designed to mimic the properties of the universe of U.S. macroeconomic data. Our analysis considers various...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334425
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Asymptotic Filtering Theory for Multivariate ARCH Models
Nelson, Daniel B. - 1994
, market returns, implicit volatility from options contracts, and other relevant data. We also allow for time-varying shapes of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474104
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Macroeconomics and Volatility : Data, Models, and Estimation
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús - 2010
high volatility are followed by periods of low volatility. For instance, the turbulent 1970s were followed by the much more … tranquil times of the great moderation from 1984 to 2007. Modeling these movements in volatility is important to understand the … different mechanisms proposed in the literature to generate changes in volatility similar to the ones observed in the data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462039
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A User's Guide to Inference in Models Defined by Moment Inequalities
Canay, Ivan A.; Illanes, Gastón; Velez, Amilcar - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Models defined by moment inequalities have become a standard modeling framework for empirical economists, spreading over a wide range of fields within economics. From the point of view of an empirical researcher, the literature on inference in moment inequality models is large and complex,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247961
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Credible Numbers : A Procedure for Reporting Statistical Precision in Parameter Estimates
Astier, Nicolas; Wolak, Frank A. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Econometric software packages typically report a fixed number of decimal digits for coefficient estimates and their associated standard errors. This practice misses the opportunity to use rounding rules that convey statistical precision. Using insights from the testing statistical hypotheses of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486216
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Double Robustness of Local Projections and Some Unpleasant VARithmetic
Olea, José Luis Montiel; Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We consider impulse response inference in a locally misspecified stationary vector autoregression (VAR) model. The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be detected with probability approaching 1. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544773
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Risky Oil : It's All in the Tails
Baumeister, Christiane; Huber, Florian; Marcellino, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
shocks are driven by a stochastic volatility model. We show that our nonparametric approach improves in terms of tail … stochastic volatility, and the simple random walk. We illustrate the practical relevance of our new approach by tracking the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544801
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Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle
Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolò, Giovanni; Song, Dongho - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995
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Global Natural Rates in the Long Run : Postwar Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r* in 10 Advanced Economies
Davis, Joshua M.; Fuenzalida, Cristian; Huetsch, Leon; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Benchmark finance and macroeconomic models appear to deliver conflicting estimates of the natural rate and bond risk premia. This natural rate puzzle applies not only in the U.S. but across many advanced economies. We use a unified no-arbitrage macro- finance model with two trend factors to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421212
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Filtering with Limited Information
Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We propose a new tool to filter non-linear dynamic models that does not require the researcher to specify the model fully and can be implemented without solving the model. If two conditions are satisfied, we can use a flexible statistical model and a known measurement equation to back out the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635717