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We calculate impulse response functions from regime-switching models where the driving variable can respond to the shock. Two methods used to estimate the impulse responses in these models are generalized impulse response functions and local projections. Local projections depend on the observed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372466
In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the moments of the yield curve (or alternatively, the term spread) as a predictor of future economic activity, defined as either recessions, or industrial production growth. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468283
We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250170
We consider impulse response inference in a locally misspecified stationary vector autoregression (VAR) model. The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be detected with probability approaching 1. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544773
Crime, Imprisonment, and Female Labor Force Participation: A Time-Series Approach Robert Witt and Ann Dryden Witte NBER … interest in discerning the impact of this costly increase on crime rates. Estimates of impact vary. We obtain new estimates of … higher levels of imprisonment and increases in labor force participation of women are related to significantly higher crime …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472027
assessing the time series evidence, comparing the history of executions and homicides in the United States and Canada, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466689
was not offered over time. We find that eligibility for Pathways reduces the likelihood of being charged with a crime by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468245
This paper presents evidence on the relation among incarceration, crime, and the economic incentives to crime, ranging … from unemployment to income inequality. It makes three points: 1) The U.S. has incarcerated an extraordinarily high … have reduced the rate of crime, through the incapacitation of criminals and through the deterrent effect of potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473997
the unemployment rate and the crime rate is explicitly derived. The solution of the proposed model shows the concurrent … counter-cyclical movements of the unemployment and crime rates, which is found to be consistent with the U.S. time series data … rate triggers a subsequent increase in the crime rate. Further, we find that the unemployment rate is statistically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475195
Few empirical studies of the economics of crime have doubted the deterrent effects of the legal sanctions on crime …. Those studies, however, have not established a definitive understanding of the effects of labor market conditions on crime …. In this paper, we examine the impact of labor market conditions, represented by either male civilian unemployment or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477295