In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the moments of the yield curve (or alternatively, the term spread) as a predictor of future economic activity, defined as either recessions, or industrial production growth. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor for the...

Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our...

We consider impulse response inference in a locally misspecified stationary vector autoregression (VAR) model. The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be detected with probability approaching 1. This...

Least squares regression with heteroskedasticity consistent standard errors ("OLS-HC regression") has proved very useful in cross section environments. However, several major difficulties, which are generally overlooked, must be confronted when transferring the HC technology to time series...

We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the...

We calculate impulse response functions from regime-switching models where the driving variable can respond to the shock. Two methods used to estimate the impulse responses in these models are generalized impulse response functions and local projections. Local projections depend on the observed...

A growing number of central authorities use assignment mechanisms to allocate students to schools in a way that reflects student preferences and school priorities. However, most real-world mechanisms incentivize students to strategically misreport their preferences. In this paper, we provide an...

We propose a new specification test to assess the validity of the judge leniency design. We characterize a set of sharp testable implications, which exploit all the relevant information in the observed data distribution to detect violations of the judge leniency design assumptions. The proposed...

Models defined by moment inequalities have become a standard modeling framework for empirical economists, spreading over a wide range of fields within economics. From the point of view of an empirical researcher, the literature on inference in moment inequality models is large and complex,...

Panel or grouped data are often used to allow for unobserved individual heterogeneity in econometric models via fixed effects. In this paper, we discuss identification of a panel data model in which the unobserved heterogeneity both enters additively and interacts with treatment variables. We...