Showing 1 - 10 of 142
In this paper we have constructed a theoretical model in which Asian firms maximize their profit, competing with Japanese and US firms in their markets. The duopoly model is used to determine export prices and volumes in response to the exchange rate fluctuations vis-…-vis the Japanese yen and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471508
The paper examines welfare effects and the trade balance response to changes in the world oil prices and interest rates … for a small oil-importing economy. The trade balance is mainly seen as the difference between saving and investment, and … effects, intertemporal terms of trade effects, and employment effects. The trade balance deteriorates for temporary oil price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478114
We study how changes in trade barriers contributed to the dynamics of the US trade balance and real exchange rate since 1980 - a period when trade tripled. Using two dynamic trade models, we decompose fluctuations in the trade balance into terms related to trade integration (global and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479517
This paper presents numerical simulation results that suggest that China can both reduce its trade imbalance and receive welfare benefits by switching the value added tax (VAT) regime from the current destination principle to an origin principle. With the tax on exports exceeding that no longer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461971
This paper presents statistical analysis supporting stylized facts about sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). It discusses the forces leading to the growth of SWFs, including the role of fuel exports and ongoing current account surpluses, and large hoarding of international reserves. It analyzes the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464086
Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that misinterpretation of some new out-of-sample tests for nested models, over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464525
The large trade and current account deficits of the United States cannot continue indefinitely because doing so would constitute a permanent gift to the U.S. economy. The process that will cause this gift to shrink and that will eventually cause it to reverse is a fall in the dollar. The dollar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464697
We develop a method for decomposing countries' observed export prices into quality versus quality-adjusted-price components using information contained in their trade balances. Holding observed export prices constant, countries with surpluses are inferred to offer higher quality than countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464840
Given the rapidly growing reserves in Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) and the pressures from trading partners to revalue, there is a need to examine commercial policy in more than a pure barter model. Here we evaluate the joint impacts of exchange rate appreciation on trade flows and country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465061
Using panel structural VAR analysis and quarterly data from four industrialized countries, we document that an increase in government purchases leads to an expansion in output and private consumption, a deterioration in the trade balance, and a depreciation of the real exchange rate (i.e., a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465322