We propose a new tool to filter non-linear dynamic models that does not require the researcher to specify the model fully and can be implemented without solving the model. If two conditions are satisfied, we can use a flexible statistical model and a known measurement equation to back out the...

We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020-2021 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in shortages in nearly all sectors early in the pandemic. Over time, the composition of...

Many households hold little wealth, especially liquid wealth. In precautionary savings models, absent preference heterogeneity, these households should display not only higher marginal propensities to consume (MPCs), but also lower average propensities to consume (APCs) and higher future...