Elite economics PhD programs aim to train graduate students for a lifetime of academic research. This paper asks how advising affects graduate students' post-PhD research productivity. Advising is highly concentrated: at the eight highly-selective schools in our study, a minority of advisors do...

Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have the potential to revolutionize research in economics and other disciplines. I describe 25 use cases along six domains in which LLMs are starting to become useful as both research assistants and tutors: ideation, writing, background research, data...

We use a rigorous three-stage many-analysts design to assess how different researcher decisions--specifically data cleaning, research design, and the interpretation of a policy question--affect the variation in estimated treatment effects. A total of 146 research teams each completed the same...

This paper proposes a new way of displaying and analyzing macroeconomic time series to form recession forecasts. The proposed data displays contain the last three years of each expansion. These allow observers to see for themselves what is different about the last year before recession. Based on...

We evaluate the decentralized structure of the Federal Reserve System as a mechanism for generating and processing new ideas on banking policy in the 1950s and 1960s. We document that demand for research and analysis was driven by banking industry developments and legal changes that required the...

When economists analyze a well-conducted RCT or natural experiment and find a statistically significant effect, they conclude the null of no effect is unlikely to be true. But how frequently is this conclusion warranted? The answer depends on the proportion of tested nulls that are true and the...

Large language models (LLMs) have seen remarkable progress in speed, cost efficiency, accuracy, and the capacity to process larger amounts of text over the past year. This article is a practical guide to update economists on how to use these advancements in their research. The main innovations...

We study the role of trade policy in one of the most pressing climate policy challenges that developing countries face: meeting voluntary emission restraints (VERs). To do so, we develop a general equilibrium trade model that extends Caliendo and Parro (2015) in three dimensions. First, we model...

Government intervention in the financial market through its own trading fundamentally changes the market's structure, function, behavior and outcome. We develop a general equilibrium framework to study the impact of government trading on market outcome and investor welfare. We show that with...