Global games of regime change -- that is, coordination games of incomplete information in which a status quo is …

the theory in a lab experiment where two subjects negotiate how to share a resource; in case of conflict, the subjects … they translate into significant increases in conflict …

We examine the mechanics of deterrence and intervention when fear is a motive for conflict. We contrast results … obtained in a complete information setting, where coordination is easy, to those obtained in a setting with strategic risk … distinguish predatory and preemptive incentives as determinants of conflict. We show that while weapons have an unambiguous …

: excessive arming and possibly the destruction associated with open conflict. Standard arguments in game theory suggest that more …, shows cycles of peace, arms races, and serious instances of open conflict. Long-lasting disarmed peace is rarely observed …. The paper develops a unified model of conflict that reveals possible theoretical mechanisms to produce such historical …

-degenerate higher-order beliefs) can lead to conflict and drive its dynamics. We develop our analysis in the context of three classic … learning about the opponent's type, as well as the possibility of conflict spirals, traps, and cycles; and a deterrence model …. We relate these models to the empirical literature and to current and historical episodes of conflict …