Showing 71 - 80 of 481
Random assignment is insufficient for measured treatment responses to recover causal effects (comparative statics) in dynamic economies. We characterize analytically bias probabilities and magnitudes. If the policy variable is binary there is attenuation bias. With more than two policy states,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457688
In this paper we provide empirical measures of central bank credibility and augment these with historical narratives … their role in influencing the credibility of the monetary authority. We focus on measures of inflation expectations, the … credibility is particularly vulnerable during financial crises, whether its evolution is a function of the type of crisis or its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457842
This paper examines the historical evolution of central bank credibility using both historical narrative and empirics … for a group of 16 countries, both advanced and emerging. It shows how the evolution of credibility has gone through a … pendulum where credibility was high under the classical gold standard before 1914 before being lost and not fully regained …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457973
We study whether actions are justified by beliefs, as is usually assumed, or whether beliefs are justified by actions. In our experiment, subjects participate in a trust game, after which they have an opportunity to state their beliefs about their opponent's actions. Subsequently, subjects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458016
The seemingly never ending scandals in the world of finance with their damaging effects on value and human welfare (that continue unabated in spite of all the various efforts to curtail the behavior that results in those scandals) argues strongly for an addition to the current paradigm of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458678
We propose a continuous time model of nominal debt and investigate the role of inflation credibility in the potential … punishment of default. With high inflation credibility, which can be interpreted as joining a monetary union or issuing foreign … currency debt, debt is effectively real. By contrast, with low inflation credibility, sovereign debt is nominal and in a debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459147
Continental dollar lost credibility. Depreciation and collapse followed shortly thereafter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461381
credibility revolution in empirical work can be traced to the rise of a design-based approach that emphasizes the identification … their prima facie credibility and by the attention investigators devote to making the case for a causal interpretation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462856
We test whether fixed exchange rate regimes are ever credible in emerging markets by analyzing the behavior of short-term domestic trade bills across countries during the classical gold standard period, the most widely used hard peg in modern financial history. We exploit the fact that global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463248
This paper asks whether developing countries can reap credibility gains from submitting policy to a strict monetary … adoption of a rule-based monetary framework such as the gold standard increased policy credibility. On the basis of the largest … lower borrowing costs. We demonstrate that in the poor periphery -- where policy credibility is a particularly acute problem …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464729