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To Hold Out or Not to Hold Out
Schorfheide, Frank - 2013
A recent literature has developed that combines two prominent empirical approaches to ex ante policy evaluation: randomized controlled trials (RCT) and structural estimation. The RCT provides a "gold-standard'' estimate of a particular treatment, but only of that treatment. Structural estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459096
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Researcher Incentives and Empirical Methods
Glaeser, Edward L. - 2006
Economists are quick to assume opportunistic behavior in almost every walk of life other than our own. Our empirical methods are based on assumptions of human behavior that would not pass muster in any of our models. The solution to this problem is not to expect a mass renunciation of data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466072
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Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?
Ferson, Wayne E. - 2002
Even though stock returns are not highly autocorrelated, there is a spurious regression bias in predictive regressions for stock returns related to the classic studies of Yule (1926) and Granger and Newbold (1974). Data mining for predictor variables interacts with spurious regression bias. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469566
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Strategyproofness-Exposing Mechanism Descriptions
Gonczarowski, Yannai; Heffetz, Ori; Thomas, Clayton - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
A menu description presents a mechanism to player i in two steps. Step (1) uses the reports of other players to describe i's menu: the set of i's potential outcomes. Step (2) uses i's report to select i's favorite outcome from her menu. Can menu descriptions better expose strategyproofness,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322893
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Scenario Sampling for Large Supermodular Games
Graham, Bryan S.; Pelican, Andrin - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper introduces a simulation algorithm for evaluating the log-likelihood function of a large supermodular binary … Carlo integration, are computationally impractical in such settings. In contrast, we introduce a novel importance sampling … algorithm which allows for accurate likelihood simulation with modest numbers of simulation draws …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322897
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Organizational Structure and Pricing : Evidence from a Large U.S. Airline
Hortaçsu, Ali; Natan, Olivia R.; Parsley, Hayden; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
We study how organizational boundaries affect pricing decisions using comprehensive data from a large U.S. airline. We document that the firm's advanced pricing algorithm, utilizing inputs from different organizational teams, is subject to multiple biases. To quantify the impacts of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012696417
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The Structure of Economic News
Bybee, Leland - 2020
We propose an approach to measuring the state of the economy via textual analysis of business news. From the full text content of 800,000 Wall Street Journal articles for 1984{2017, we estimate a topic model that summarizes business news as easily interpretable topical themes and quantifies the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479172
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Technology and Big Data Are Changing Economics : Mining Text to Track Methods
Currie, Janet - 2020
The last 40 years have seen huge innovations in computing technology and data availability. Data derived from millions of administrative records or by using (as we do) new methods of data generation such as text mining are now common. New data often requires new methods, which in turn can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479239
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Predicting Returns With Text Data
Ke, Zheng Tracy - 2019
We introduce a new text-mining methodology that extracts sentiment information from news articles to predict asset returns. Unlike more common sentiment scores used for stock return prediction (e.g., those sold by commercial vendors or built with dictionary-based methods), our supervised...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480131
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Combining Family History and Machine Learning to Link Historical Records
Price, Joseph - 2019
A key challenge for research on many questions in the social sciences is that it is difficult to link historical records in a way that allows investigators to observe people at different points in their life or across generations. In this paper, we develop a new approach that relies on millions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480171