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Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects : A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia
Abeysinghe, Tilak - 2001
This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries …. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output …-trade matrix. For example, due to these output-multiplier effects, a shock to one country can have a large impact on countries that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470116
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Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics
Stock, James H. - 2003
The volatility of economic activity in most G7 economies has moderated over the past forty years. Also, despite large increases in trade and openness, G7 business cycles have not become more synchronized. After documenting these twin facts, we interpret G7 output data using a structural VAR that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468838
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Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade
Baxter, Marianne - 1994
International financial market linkages are widely believed to be important for the international transmission of business cycles, since these govern the extent to which individuals can smooth consumption in the presence of country-specific shocks to income. This paper develops a two-country,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473924
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Exchange Rate Flexibility and the Transmission of Business Cycles
de Macedo, Jorge Braga - 1985
This paper presents a very simple model of the effects of flexible exchange rates in the transmission of business cycles. The starting point is the traditional "locomotive" effect, through exports and imports. Aside from this horizontal transmission, the intertemporal exchange rate model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477511
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Flexibility of Adjustment to Shocks : Economic Growth and Volatility of Middle-Income Countries Before and After the Global Financial Crisis of 2008
Aizenman, Joshua - 2017
The pronounced and persistent impact of the global financial crisis of 2008 motivates our empirical analysis of the role of institutions and macroeconomic fundamentals on countries' adjustment to shocks. Our empirical analysis shows that the associations of growth level, growth volatility,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455214
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World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation
Fernández, Andrés - 2016
Most existing studies of the macroeconomic effects of global shocks assume that they are mediated by a single intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847
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International Business Cycle Synchronization in Historical Perspective
Bordo, Michael D. - 2010
evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then examine the role of global shocks and shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462553
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Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?
Bordo, Michael D. - 2003
In this paper, we document evidence on the synchronization of business cycles across 16 countries over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find using three different methodologies that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468564
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Global House Price Fluctuations : Synchronization and Determinants
Hirata, Hideaki - 2012
We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across eighteen advanced economies over the past forty years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460298
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TFP, News, and "Sentiments : " The International Transmission of Business Cycles
Levchenko, Andrei A. - 2015
We propose a novel identification scheme for a non-technology business cycle shock, that we label "sentiment." This is … a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks that maximizes the short-run forecast error variance of an … shock produces a business cycle in the US, with output, hours, and consumption rising following a positive shock, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457658