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Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
Ha, Jongrim - 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479322
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Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies : An Assessment of the New Merchantilism
Durdu, Ceyhun Bora - 2007
Financial globalization was off to a rocky start in emerging economies hit by Sudden Stops since the mid 1990s. Foreign … saving affects foreign assets via three mechanisms: business cycle volatility, financial globalization, and Sudden Stop risk … Irving Fisher's debt-deflation mechanism. Our results show that financial globalization and Sudden Stop risk are plausible …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465531
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The Wobbly Economy : Global Dynamics with Phase and State Transitions
Hirano, Tomohiro; Stiglitz, Joseph E. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We analyze global dynamics in the standard life-cycle model with production, showing that there can be a plethora of rational expectations dynamics, including "wobbly macro-dynamics". Depending on people's beliefs, the macroeconomy can bounce around infinitely, without converging, without...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938775
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Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring
Aruoba, S. Boragan - 2010
We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462392
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Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries
Prasad, Eswar S. - 2004
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of empirical evidence about the impact of financial globalization on …, we do find that financial globalization can be beneficial under the right circumstances. Empirically, good institutions … and quality of governance are crucial in helping developing countries derive the benefits of globalization. Similarly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467745
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Trade Openness and Investment Instability
Razin, Assaf - 2002
In the presence of lumpy investment cost of adjustment, globalization may have non-conventional effects on the level of …-validating expectations. In this sense globalization destabilizes the economy. There can be substantial gains from globalization in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469888
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Commodity prices and markets : [NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics, volume 20 ; collection of papers that were presented at the 20th Annual East Asia Seminar on Economics (EASE) ;...
Itō, Takatoshi (contributor); Rose, Andrew (contributor) - 2011
Forecasting currencies with commodity prices -- Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments / Jan J. J. Groen and Paolo A. Pesenti -- Comments: Kalok Chan, Roberto S. Mariano -- The relationship between commodity prices and currency exchange rates: evidence from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008909722
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From Mancession to Shecession : Women's Employment in Regular and Pandemic Recessions
Alon, Titan; Coskun, Sena; Doepke, Matthias; Koll, David; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
We examine the impact of the global recession triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic on women's versus men's employment. Whereas recent recessions in advanced economies usually had a disproportionate impact on men's employment, giving rise to the moniker "mancessions," we show that the pandemic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510511
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Macroprudential Policy during COVID-19 : The Role of Policy Space
Bergant, Katharina; Forbes, Kristin - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
This paper uses the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic to examine how macroprudential frameworks developed over the past decade performed during a period of heightened financial and economic stress. It discusses a new measure of the macroprudential stance that better captures the intensity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660024
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The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies
Ma, Lin; Shapira, Gil; De Walque, Damien; Đỗ-Quý-Toàn - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012585409