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Social interactions make communicable disease a core concern of public health policy. A prevalent problem is scarcity of empirical evidence that are informative about how interventions affect population behavior and illness. Randomized trials, which have been important to evaluation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458235
This paper develops a theory of dynamic pessimism and its impact on asset prices. Notions of time-varying pessimism … endogenous state variable driving risk aversion, portfolio decisions, and equilibrium asset prices. Using survey data, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481947
This paper examines monetary policy in Rudebusch and Svensson's (1999) two equation macroeconomic model when the policymaker recognizes that the model is an approximation and is uncertain about the quality of that approximation. It is argued that the minimax approach of robust control provides a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471286
Uncertainty is a ubiquitous concern emphasized by policymakers. We study how uncertainty affects decision-making by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We distinguish between the notion of Fed-managed uncertainty vis-a-vis uncertainty that emanates from within the economy and which the Fed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436980
entrepreneurial priors, and Bayesian updating. The paper also explores connections to effectuation theory, finding that formal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015326500
Global climate change and other environmental challenges require the development of new energy technologies with lower emissions. In the near-term, R&D investments, either by government or the private sector, can bring down the costs of these lower emission technologies. However, the results of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457272
We review and extend the economic analysis of risk and uncertainty as it relates to behavior mitigating health shocks … for risk-sharing in health by pooling the health care spending risk. In a sense, medical innovation involves a current …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459657
probabilistic terms: we are facing deep uncertainty or ambiguity rather than risk in the classical sense, rendering the classical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459732
Time-inconsistency of no-bailout policies can create incentives for banks to take excessive risks and generate endogenous crises when the government cannot commit. However, at the outbreak of financial problems, usually the government is uncertain about their nature, and hence it may delay...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459895
This paper studies Pareto-optimal risk-sharing arrangements in a private information economy with aggregate uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460841