, product information improved the prediction accuracy of respondents. Turning to real-life behavior, we find that mutual funds …

Psychological evidence indicates that decision quality declines after an extensive session of decision-making, a … phenomenon known as decision fatigue. We study whether decision fatigue affects analysts' judgments. Analysts cover multiple … firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as …

revisions predict forecast errors. Sticky or noisy information models seem like unlikely explanations for these anomalies …Forecasts of professional forecasters are anomalous: they are biased, forecast errors are autocorrelated, and forecast …: professional forecasters pay attention constantly and have precise knowledge of the data in question. We propose that these …

exists in the Canadian data, but is of only modest value in a forecasting context. The excess return on long-term bonds …

This paper addresses the question of whether nominal Eurocurrency interest rates provide significant information about … indicate that nominal Eurocurrency rates provide valuable marginal information about expected inflation for the U.S. and U …

Association, has been collecting a large amount of information on the record of forecasting in the U. S. economy. This paper is a … and academic forecasters. The data are in certain respects uniquely rich. The first part of the paper reviews briefly the … models of economic expectations and discusses the potential and problems of using survey data for testing these models. The …

current information. This proposition is tested by examining the behavior of U.S. federal and total government tax (and "non … econometric problems with using time-averaged data are discussed. The main empirical results accord with the theoretical analysis … existing IJ.S. time series data do not isolate periods in which current overall tax rates would be perceived as high or low …

forecasting movements in short-term interest rates. For brief forecast intervals, however, ex ante changes in long-term rates are …