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Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again afterward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994. This last period coincided with severe balance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479377
After the economic reforms that followed the National Revolution of the 1950s, Bolivia seemed positioned for sustained growth. Indeed, it achieved unprecedented growth from 1960 to 1977. The rapid accumulation of debt due to persistent deficits and a fixed exchange rate policy during the 1970s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479478
We examine whether sentiment influences aggregate demand by studying the relationship between the Michigan Survey expectations concerning national output growth and future economic activity at the state level. We instrument for local sentiments with political outcomes, positing that agents in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453815
In a sample of 110 countries over the period 1960-2009, we document a positive relation between the volatility and skewness of growth in the cross-section. The relation holds regardless of initial level of economic development and of subsequent long-run growth rate. We argue that this novel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460104
How much has the US-China tariff war impacted economic outcomes in China? We address this question using high … grids with negligible direct exposure to the US tariffs accounted for up to 70% of China's population, we infer that the 2 … (manufacturing employment) relative to unaffected grids. By contrast, we do not find significant effects from China's retaliatory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660027
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480126
China's real estate has been a key engine of its sustained economic expansion. This paper argues, however, that even …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481245
Can standard business-cycle methodology be applied to China? In this chapter, we address this question by examining the … macroeconomic time series and identifying dimensions in which China differs from economies (such as Canada and the U.S.) that are … typically the subject of business-cycle research. We show that naively applying the standard business-cycle tools to China is no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462503
We discuss business cycles in ancient China. Data on Ancient China business cycles are sparse and incomplete and so our … years for OECD countries and with major focus on the 1990's. Here we also probe material on Ancient China to see what is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456997
research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend … offers a constructive framework for studying China's modern macroeconomy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457423