Similar Search Results

Welch, Ivo - 2016

Do financial markets properly reflect leverage? Unlike Gomes and Schmid (2010) who examine this question with a structural approach (using long-term monthly stock characteristics), my paper examines it with a quasi-experimental approach (using short-term a discrete event). After a firm has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456525

Forecasting Crashes : Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices

Chen, Joseph - 2000

This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471074

Stock Return Predictability : Is it There?

Ang, Andrew - 2001

We ask whether stock returns in France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are predictable by three instruments: the dividend yield, the earnings yield and the short rate. The predictability regression is suggested by a present value model with earnings growth, payout ratios and the short rate as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470517

Earnings and Expected Returns

Lamont, Owen - 1996

The aggregate dividend payout ratio forecasts aggregate excess returns on both stocks and corporate bonds in post-war US data. Both high corporate profits and high stock prices forecast low excess returns on equities. When the payout ratio is high, expected returns are high. The payout ratio's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473171

Maximizing Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets

Lo, Andrew W. - 1995

We construct portfolios of stocks and of bonds that are maximally predictable with respect to a set of ex ante observable economic variables, and show that these levels of predictability are statistically significant, even after controlling for data-snooping biases. We disaggregate the sources...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473866

On the Predictability of Stock Returns : An Asset-Allocation Perspective

Kandel, Shmuel - 1995

The predictability of monthly stock returns is investigated from the perspective of a risk-averse investor who uses the data to update initially vague beliefs about the conditional distribution of returns. The optimal stocks-versus-cash allocation of the investor can depend importantly on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473901

Four Centuries of Return Predictability

Golez, Benjamin - 2014

We combine annual stock market data for the most important equity markets of the last four centuries: the Netherlands/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast returns. The documented predictability holds for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457852

Monetary-Based Asset Pricing : A Mixed-Frequency Structural Approach

Bianchi, Francesco; Ludvigson, Sydney C.; Ma, Sai - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We integrate a high-frequency monetary event study into a mixed-frequency macro-finance model and structural estimation …. The model and estimation allow for jumps at Fed announcements in investor beliefs, providing granular detail on why … financial market risk. However, the structural estimation also finds that much of the causal impact of monetary policy on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210100

Robust-H-infinity Forecasting and Asset Pricing Anomalies

Tornell, Aaron - 2000

We present an alternative expectation formation mechanism that helps rationalize well known asset pricing anomalies, such as the predictability of excess returns, excess volatility, and the equity-premium puzzle. As with rational expectations (RE), the expectation formation mechanism we consider...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470997

There is a Risk-Return Tradeoff After All

Ghysels, Eric - 2004

This paper studies the ICAPM intertemporal relation between the conditional mean and the conditional variance of the aggregate stock market return. We introduce a new estimator that forecasts monthly variance with past daily squared returns -- the Mixed Data Sampling (or MIDAS) approach. Using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467774

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Next
Last