This paper explores links between policy uncertainty and growth. It provides evidence on the correlation between policy uncertainty and per capita real GDP for 46 developing countries over the 1970-85 period. Cross-section regressions on growth suggest that after accounting for standard...

This paper takes as a given the proposition that, in many developing countries, governmental policies have been highly distortive and harmful to economic growth. These policies have included omissions, such as neglect of infrastructure, and commission such as highly restrictive trade regimes and...

Many development policies, such as placement of infrastructure or local economic development schemes, are "place-based." Such policies are generally intended to stimulate private sector investment and economic growth in the treated place, and as such they are difficult to appraise and evaluate....

This paper makes the case for greater use of randomized experiments "at scale." We review various critiques of experimental program evaluation in developing countries, and discuss how experimenting at scale along three specific dimensions - the size of the sampling frame, the number of units...

The promise of randomized controlled trials is that evidence gathered through the evaluation of a specific program helps us--possibly after several rounds of fine-tuning and multiple replications in different contexts--to inform policy. However, critics have pointed out that a potential...

The macroeconomics of populism / Rudiger Dornbusch, Sebastian Edwards -- The political economy of Latin American populism / Robert R. Kaufman, Barbara Stallings -- Populism, profligacy, and redistribution / Eliana Cardoso, Ann Helwege -- Description of a populist experience: Argentina, 1973-1976...

This paper develops a multi-agent dynamic model of the commercial aircraft industry and then uses that model to analyze industry pricing, industry performance, and optimal industry policy. In the model, firms are differentiated in their products and cost structure, and entry, exit, prices, and...

Centralized wage-setting institutions compress relative wages. Motivated by this fact, we investigate the effects of centralized wage setting on the industry distribution of employment. We examine Sweden's industry distribution from 1960 to 1994 and compare it to the U.S. distribution over the...

Does industrial policy work? This is a subject of long-standing debates among economists and policymakers. Using newly digitized microdata, we evaluate the Korean government's policy that promoted heavy and chemical industries between 1973 and 1979 by cutting taxes and building new industrial...

This paper provides causal evidence of the impact of industrial policy on firms' long-term performance and quantifies industrial policy's long-term welfare effects. Using a natural experiment and unique historical data during the Heavy and Chemical Industry (HCI) Drive in South Korea, we find...