This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates … for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same …

We design and field an innovative survey of unemployment insurance (UI) recipients that yields new insights about wage … efficient separations that holds in leading theories of job separations, frictional unemployment, and job ladders. We draw on …

We introduce dynamic incentive contracts into a model of unemployment dynamics and present three results. First, wage … cyclicality from incentives does not dampen unemployment dynamics: the response of unemployment to shocks is first … cyclicality from bargaining dampens unemployment dynamics through the standard mechanism. Third, our calibrated model suggests 46 …

This paper shows empirically that the non-employment effects of unemployment insurance (UI) for older workers depend in … difficult-to-explain trends in the unemployment rate of older German workers …

This study documents how job seekers update perceived job-finding prospects by unemployment duration and by learning … about aggregate unemployment. We find that job seekers perceive an 18% decline in their job-finding probability for each … additional month of unemployment, but perceive a higher job-finding probability when the aggregate unemployment rate is …

pandemic recession. We first measure the contribution of temporary layoffs to unemployment dynamics over the period 1979 to the … due to "loss-of-recall", whereby workers in temporary-layoff unemployment lose their job permanently and do so at higher … both temporary-layoff and jobless unemployment. The model captures well pre-pandemic unemployment dynamics and shows how …

employment is the efficient unemployment rate, u*. We define u* as the unemployment rate that minimizes the nonproductive use of …). Accordingly, the efficient unemployment rate is the geometric average of the unemployment and vacancy rates: u* = √uv. We compute …

We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history had large spending impacts and small job …

Most economists maintain that the labor market in the United States is 'tight' because unemployment rates are low. They …, prior to that, real wages had been stagnant for some time. We show that unemployment is not key to understanding wage …

Licensed workers could be shielded from unemployment during recession since occupational licensing laws are asymmetric …-in-differences event study research design that exploits cross-state variation in licensing laws to compare the unemployment rate between …, we find that licensing shields workers from a recession-induced increase in the unemployment rate of 0.82 p.p. during …