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We introduce a new, hybrid measure of stock return tail covariance risk, motivated by the under-diversified portfolio … return as in standard systematic risk measures. We document a positive and significant relation between hybrid tail … covariance risk (H-TCR) and expected stock returns, with an annualized premium of 9%, in contrast to the insignificant or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459202
We study the performance of many traditional and novel, text-based variables for in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting of oil spot, futures, and energy company stock returns, and changes in oil volatility, production, and inventories. After controlling for small-sample biases, we find evidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660057
power for expected returns across a range of equity characteristic portfolios and non-equity asset classes, with risk price … estimates that are of the same sign and similar in magnitude. Positive exposure to capital share risk earns a positive risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457922
about their performance relative to a benchmark. Benchmarking increases an investor's effective risk-aversion, which reduces …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455121
This paper uses three different surveys of economic forecasts to assess both the support for and the properties of informational rigidities faced by agents. Specifically, we track the impulse responses of mean forecast errors and disagreement among agents after exogenous structural shocks. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464063
stocks earn returns that are significantly lower than stocks of non-financial firms of the same size and with the same risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456321
businesses to new projects and thus generates a source of systematic risk for portfolios of firms sorted on value, profitability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479727
We introduce a new text-mining methodology that extracts sentiment information from news articles to predict asset returns. Unlike more common sentiment scores used for stock return prediction (e.g., those sold by commercial vendors or built with dictionary-based methods), our supervised...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480131
We examine subjective risk premia implied by return expectations of individual investors and professionals for … excess returns suggest that objective risk premia vary countercyclically with business cycle variables and aggregate asset … valuation measures, subjective risk premia extracted from survey data do not comove much with these variables. This lack of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938772
We combine annual stock market data for the most important equity markets of the last four centuries: the Netherlands/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast returns. The documented predictability holds for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457852