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After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576667
environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458090
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000051627
, mostly from the world of corporate business and finance -- executives, analysts, economic consultants, also some government … and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478266
models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456277
of the World (ROW) is developed to quantify capital controls and evaluate their impact on the world economy. We find … these controls had large effects. Counterfactual analysis show world output would have been 0:5 percent higher had there …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337829
geopolitical factors. Using data on foreign reserves of 19 countries before World War I, for which the currency composition of … hypothetical scenario where the U.S. withdraws from the world, our estimates suggest that long-term U.S. interest rates could rise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453568
Data on global trade as well as capital and labor flows indicate a slowdown, but not reversal, of globalization post the 2008-09 financial crisis. Yet profound changes in the policy environment and public sentiment in the largest economies over the past five years suggest the beginning of a new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250133
model uniformly outperforms the random walk forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466184
Aggregate and sectoral comovement are central features of business cycle data. Therefore, the ability to generate comovement is a natural litmus test for macroeconomic models. But it is a test that most existing models fail. In this paper we propose a unified model that generates both aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466128