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inflation. We construct daily revisions to expectations of future nominal interest rates and inflation that are priced into … nominal and inflation-protected bonds, and find that the relation between these two variables-positive and stable for over … considered in the literature, these results are indicative of a monetary authority that places less weight on inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576649
For over two centuries, the municipal bond market has been a source of systemic risk, which returned early in the Covid-19 downturn when borrowing from securities markets became costly for many private and public entities, and some found it difficult to borrow at all. Indeed, just before the Fed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482653
heterogeneous inflation expectations. Expectations are updated through social dynamics and, with heterogeneity, not all firms choose … to operate, putting downward pressure on realized inflation. Our model rationalizes why countries stuck at the zero lower … bound have had a hard time increasing inflation without being aggressive. The same model also predicts that announcing an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458503
Reserve and commercial inflation forecasts. We demonstrate that the Federal Reserve has considerable information about … inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters. We also provide evidence that monetary policy actions provide signals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473150
This paper has three parts. Part 1 constructs a classical economic model of inflation, augmented by a complete set of … core monetary model explains the history of inflation after WWII and Part 3 provides evidence to show that the … unconventional monetary policy, followed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, was effective in stabilizing inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460653
This paper develops an arbitrage-free time-series model of yields in continuous time that incorporates central bank policy. Policy-related events, such as FOMC meetings and releases of macroeconomic news the Fed cares about, are modeled as jumps. The model introduces a class of linear-quadratic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470478
In his 2004 inflation targeting manifesto, Marvin Goodfriend described US monetary policy as implicit inflation … targeting and advocated explicit targeting. Summarizing the 1965-2000 US inflation experience, he highlighted the importance of …, no conflict arises between flexible inflation targeting and maintaining/accumulating credibility. Second, implicit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210040
perform poorly when knowledge is imperfect. In particular, policies that fail to maintain tight control over inflation are … prone to episodes in which the public's expectations of inflation become uncoupled from the policy objective and stagflation … effective communication of a central bank's inflation objective and of continued vigilance against inflation in anchoring …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468813
Inflation targeting offers the promise of introducing to monetary policy a logic and consistency that some central …, inflation targeting also serves two further objectives that are of more questionable import, and while seemingly contradictory … vocabulary pertaining solely to inflation, inflation targeting fosters over time the atrophication of concerns for real outcomes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469742
expected inflation, and the ""nominal-real covariance"" of inflation and the real interest rate with the real economy. The last …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463946