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International Business Cycle Synchronization in Historical Perspective
Bordo, Michael D. - 2010
In this paper, we review and attempt to explain the changes in business cycle synchronization among 16 industrial … secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange … evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then examine the role of global shocks and shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462553
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Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade
Baxter, Marianne - 1994
International financial market linkages are widely believed to be important for the international transmission of business cycles, since these govern the extent to which individuals can smooth consumption in the presence of country-specific shocks to income. This paper develops a two-country,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473924
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Cyclical Dispersion in Expected Defaults
Gomes, João F. - 2017
A growing literature shows that credit indicators forecast aggregate real outcomes. While researchers have proposed various explanations, the economic mechanism behind these results remains an open question. In this paper, we show that a simple, frictionless, model explains empirical findings...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012454978
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World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation
Fernández, Andrés - 2016
Most existing studies of the macroeconomic effects of global shocks assume that they are mediated by a single intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847
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TFP, News, and "Sentiments : " The International Transmission of Business Cycles
Levchenko, Andrei A. - 2015
We propose a novel identification scheme for a non-technology business cycle shock, that we label "sentiment." This is … a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks that maximizes the short-run forecast error variance of an … shock produces a business cycle in the US, with output, hours, and consumption rising following a positive shock, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457658
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Global House Price Fluctuations : Synchronization and Determinants
Hirata, Hideaki - 2012
synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460298
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Business Cycles in the Euro Area
Giannone, Domenico - 2008
This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries' business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464118
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Medium Term Business Cycles
Comin, Diego - 2003
, with a non-technological shock as the exogenous disturbance. In particular the model offers a unified approach to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468709
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Shocks, Structures or Monetary Policies? The Euro Area and US After 2001
Christiano, Lawrence - 2007
The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates more vigorously in the recent recession than the European Central Bank did. By comparison with the Fed, the ECB followed a more measured course of action. We use an estimated dynamic general equilibrium model with financial frictions to show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465125
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Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks
Devereux, Michael B. - 2010
Recent macroeconomic experience has drawn attention to the importance of interdependence among countries through financial markets and institutions, independently of traditional trade linkages. This paper develops a model of the international transmission of shocks due to interdependent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462429