the evidence in favour a nonlinear Phillips curve may is fact be driven by improperly controlling for inflation …

explaining bouts of inflation. We begin by showing that a quasi-flat Phillips curve, which was popular prior to the pandemic …, still fits the post-2020 US data well and that changes in short term inflation expectations induced by supply shocks likely … played a major role in the recent inflation episode. We then document features of the joint dynamics of inflation and …

We show that, in a broad class of menu cost models, the dynamics of aggregate inflation in response to arbitrary shocks …

difference by showing that, although the pass-through of marginal cost into inflation is substantial, the elasticity of marginal … inflation …

The US and other advanced countries suffered bursts of severe inflation in 2021 and the first half of 2022, followed by … declines of inflation later in 2022, in some countries. In times of high volatility of price determinants--cost and … productivity--inflation can jump upward and fall downward at high speed, contrary to the uniformly sticky behavior associated with …

To what extent is the recent spike in inflation driven by a change in its permanent component? We estimate a semi …-structural model of output, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in the United States over the period 1900-2021. The model predicts … that between 2019 and 2021 the permanent component of inflation rose by 51 basis points. If instead we estimate the model …

Macro data suggests a convex relationship between inflation and economic slack, but identifying causality is … strongest in firms and industries with higher inflation, disappears in horizons beyond two years, and is also present in … response to cost shocks. We rationalize these findings in a menu cost model with positive trend inflation and decreasing …

Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …

of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better … contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this paper constructs new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that … that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest. In particular …