explaining bouts of inflation. We begin by showing that a quasi-flat Phillips curve, which was popular prior to the pandemic …, still fits the post-2020 US data well and that changes in short term inflation expectations induced by supply shocks likely … played a major role in the recent inflation episode. We then document features of the joint dynamics of inflation and …

The US and other advanced countries suffered bursts of severe inflation in 2021 and the first half of 2022, followed by … declines of inflation later in 2022, in some countries. In times of high volatility of price determinants--cost and … productivity--inflation can jump upward and fall downward at high speed, contrary to the uniformly sticky behavior associated with …

We show that, in a broad class of menu cost models, the dynamics of aggregate inflation in response to arbitrary shocks …

difference by showing that, although the pass-through of marginal cost into inflation is substantial, the elasticity of marginal … inflation …

To what extent is the recent spike in inflation driven by a change in its permanent component? We estimate a semi …-structural model of output, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in the United States over the period 1900-2021. The model predicts … that between 2019 and 2021 the permanent component of inflation rose by 51 basis points. If instead we estimate the model …

Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …

of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better … contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this paper constructs new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that … that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest. In particular …

flows, short-term and long-term inflation expectations and a forward-looking New-Keynesian Phillips curve for the 1960 … of 2021. This pronounced rise was primarily informed by strong wage growth rather than changes in inflation expectations …. Our model forecasts strong wage growth to moderate only sluggishly continuing to put upward pressure on inflation in the …

This paper provides an explanation for the run-up of U.S. inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation … by low inflation. However, prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when … policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the Phillips curve. I estimate …