; meanwhile private sector forecasters were not subject to this crude bias. As a result, using private sector forecasts as an …

escalations of violence. "Best case" scenarios with panel data fall short of workable early-warning systems …

We use a dynamic panel Tobit model with heteroskedasticity to generate point, set, and density forecasts for a large … and residential real estate loans, comparing various versions of the panel Tobit model …

panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients under … Carlo study. In an empirical application we use the predictor to forecast revenues for a large panel of bank holding …

Analogous to Stambaugh (1999), this paper derives the small sample bias of estimators in J-horizon predictive … bias for overlapping than nonoverlapping regressions despite the greater number of observations, and (ii) particularly … higher bias for an alternative long-horizon predictive regression commonly advocated for in the literature. For large J, the …

this bias is not present in forecasts data that is not subject to strategic incentives. We show that our evidence is …