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We provide the planner's solution to a model where households learn from exogenous natural disaster arrivals about … since disaster leads to pessimistic arrival-rate beliefs and taxes or mandates to fund mitigation, which reduce consumption …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482023
Despite escalating disaster losses and predicted increases in weather-related catastrophes, takeup of protective …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794648
public-private risk pool. The default frame was changed so the homeowner could either opt-in by purchasing this coverage or … opt-out of being given this protection and receiving a premium discount. Assigning participants to a public-private risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616592
This paper documents several facts on the real effects of economic uncertainty. First, higher uncertainty is associated with a more dispersed distribution of output growth. Second, the relation is highly asymmetric: A rise in uncertainty is associated with a sharp decline in the lower tail of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482243
shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic … probability of disaster leads to a collapse of investment and a recession, an increase in risk spreads, and a decrease in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463250
Recent studies have shown that disaster risk can generate asset return moments similar to those observed in the U ….S. data. However, these studies have ignored the cross-country asset pricing implications of the disaster risk model. This … paper shows that standard U.S.-based disaster risk model assumptions found in the literature lead to counterfactual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455615
the mean and volatility of equity returns. Our model assumes a small risk of a rare disaster that is calibrated based on … the international data on large consumption declines. We allow the risk of this rare disaster to be stochastic, which … specifications for the stochastic rare disaster probability and show that the data favor a multifrequency process. Finally, we show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459050
A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459187
associated with a stronger relationship between premiums and local disaster risk: A one standard-deviation increase in disaster …-through of reinsurance costs. Third, we project that if the reinsurance shock persists, growing disaster risk will lead climate … risk is associated with $500 higher premiums in 2023, up from $300 in 2018. Second, using the rapid rise in reinsurance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576608
and optimistic behavior in good times. In a disaster, uncertainty about duration acts as an amplification mechanism … welfare cost of parameter uncertainty can be extreme. However, in advance of a disaster, uncertainty about the arrival rate … full information and pay less for insurance against the next disaster …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247988