of the multi-step forecasting risk and the impulse response estimation risk to determine hyperparameters in settings …

In 1991, the Japanese economy ended a historic expansion and entered a period of stagnation that has yet to abate. Nine …

This paper proposes a new way of displaying and analyzing macroeconomic time series to form recession forecasts. The … different about the last year before recession. Based on a statistical model, the most recent data are then probabilistically … method deals with these intra-correlation issues. The one variable that is causing a recession alarm is inflation. The …

Conditions of secular stagnation - low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth … - characterize much of the global economy. We consider an overlapping generations, open economy model of secular stagnation, and … examine the effect of capital flows on the transmission of stagnation. In a world with a low natural rate of interest, greater …

Conditions of secular stagnation - low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth - now … secular stagnation and to study policy externalities across countries. We find capital flows transmit recessions in a world … expansion cannot eliminate a secular stagnation and may have beggar-thy-neighbor effects, while sufficiently large fiscal …

The paper looks at the development of the secular stagnation thesis, in the context of the economic history of the time …

Four explanations for secular stagnation are distinguished: a rise in global saving, slow population growth that makes …

light on the long persistence of the Japanese crisis, the Great Depression, and the slow recovery out of the Great Recession …