stagnation. We examine a panel of 241 "stagnation episodes" from 146 countries, 54 % of these episodes are followed by takeoffs …. Countries that experience takeoffs average 2.3% annual growth following their stagnation episodes, while those that do not …

In 1991, the Japanese economy ended a historic expansion and entered a period of stagnation that has yet to abate. Nine …

This paper proposes a new way of displaying and analyzing macroeconomic time series to form recession forecasts. The … different about the last year before recession. Based on a statistical model, the most recent data are then probabilistically … method deals with these intra-correlation issues. The one variable that is causing a recession alarm is inflation. The …

Corporate investment is the most important factor to explain the long stagnation of Japan during the 1990's. Using the …

will remain - highly prone to secular stagnation. But for extraordinary fiscal policies, real interest rates would have …

Great Financial Crisis decade. Indeed, during the "secular stagnation regime" of 2008-2015 that prevailed in a number of … countries, aging had a negative impact on living standards, consistent with the secular stagnation hypothesis …

explanation is correct, it has important implications for policy and for forecasts. It may weaken the case for secular stagnation …

This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative …

desired investment, leading to secular stagnation. We show that there is no such negative relationship in the data. If …