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The Macroeconomics of Narratives
Flynn, Joel P.; Sastry, Karthik - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We study the macroeconomic implications of narratives, defined as beliefs about the economy that spread contagiously. In an otherwise standard business-cycle model, narratives generate persistent and belief-driven fluctuations. Sufficiently contagious narratives can "go viral," generating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576631
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Biased Surveys
Valchev, Rosen; Gemmi, Luca - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
surveys of forecasts as a direct measure of expectations, as this would overestimate the likely deviations from rational … expectations, the information precision and the degree of disagreement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337840
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Households' Response to the Wealth Effects of Inflation
Schnorpfeil, Philip; Weber, Michael; Hackethal, Andreas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372429
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How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe
Acharya, Viral V.; Crosignani, Matteo; Eisert, Tim; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We document how supply-chain pressures, household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power interacted to induce … through a cost-push channel and raised inflation expectations. Subsequently, the cost-push channel intensified as firms with …-chain pressures eased, these firms were able to further increase markups due to the stickiness of inflation expectations. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421216
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Deferred Acceptance with News Utility
Dreyfuss, Bnaya; Glicksohn, Ofer; Heffetz, Ori; Romm, Assaf - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Can incorporating expectations-based-reference-dependence (EBRD) considerations reduce seemingly dominated choices in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013462684
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Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models
Koşar, Gizem; O'Dea, Cormac - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
A growing literature uses now widely-available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models … show how expectations data have been used to relax strong assumptions about beliefs and outline how they can be used in … of expectations data in the estimation of structural models. We conclude by noting directions for future research …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210122
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Do Conflict of Interests Disclosures Work? : Evidence from Citations in Medical Journals
Leuz, Christian; Malani, Anup; Muhn, Maximilian; Jakab, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Financial ties between drug companies and medical researchers are thought to bias studies published in medical journals. To enable readers to account for such bias, most medical journals require authors to disclose potential conflicts of interest. We examine whether disclosure reduces article...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226124
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Firming up Price Inflation
Bunn, Philip; Anayi, Lena S.; Bloom, Nicholas; Mizen, Paul - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We use data from a large panel survey of UK firms to analyze the economic drivers of price setting since the start of the Covid pandemic. Inflation responded asymmetrically to movements in demand. This helps to explain why inflation did not fall much during the negative initial pandemic demand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388861
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Central Bank Communication with the General Public : Promise or False Hope?
Blinder, Alan S.; Ehrmann, Michael; Haan, Jakob de; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
. One major aim of this outreach is to guide inflation expectations; another is to ensure accountability and create trust … on the extent to which this new outreach does in fact affect inflation expectations and trust. On balance, we see some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334494
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Imagining the Future : Memory, Simulation and Beliefs about Covid
Bordalo, Pedro; Burro, Giovanni; Coffman, Katherine B.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? A 2020 US survey of beliefs about the lethality of Covid reveals that the elderly underestimate, and the young overestimate, their own risks, and that people with more health adversities are more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362007