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Long-Range Forecasts As Climate Adaptation : Experimental Evidence From Developing-Country Agriculture
Burlig, Fiona; Jina, Amir; Kelley, Erin M.; Lane, Gregory V. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Climate change increases weather variability, exacerbating agricultural risk in poor countries. Risk-averse farmers are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486264
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Shortening the Path to Productive Investment : Evidence from Input Fairs and Cash Transfers in Malawi
Aggarwal, Shilpa; Jeong, Dahyeon; Kumar, Naresh; Park, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
While cash transfers consistently show large effects on immediate outcomes like consumption, limited access to markets may mute their impact on productive investment. In an experiment in Malawi, we cross-cut cash transfers with an "input fair," designed to reduce transport costs to access...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512117
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Distortions, Producer Dynamics, and Aggregate Productivity : A General Equilibrium Analysis
Ayerst, Stephen; Brandt, Loren; Restuccia, Diego - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
The expansion in farm size is an important contributor to agricultural productivity in developed countries, but the reallocation process is hindered in less developed economies. How do distortions to factor reallocation affect farm dynamics and agricultural productivity? We develop a model of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226182
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Weather, Climate, and Technology Adoption : An Application to Drought-Tolerant Corn in the United States
McFadden, Jonathan R.; Smith, David; Wallander, Steven - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Crop farmers have few short-run options for reducing downside production risk from changes in drought frequency and … how recent drought exposure, drought risk, and other climatic features have influenced adoption of DT corn--a water … drought risk and exposure. Using a representative sample of U.S. farmers' fields, we implement a novel econometric method …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334340
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Cover Crops, Drought, Yield and Risk : an Analysis of U.S. Soybean Production
Dong, Fengxia - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
on soybean yield and its risk using USDA's 2018 ARMS Phase II Soybean Production Practices and Costs Report and Phase III … yield and its risk are mixed. Under a drought condition, cover crops reduced soybean yield and increased yield variation …; but in the meantime, they reduced the risk of crop failure, or made yield less negatively skewed. The insignificant effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334341
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Who (Actually) Gets the Farm? Intergenerational Farm Succession in the United States
Haws, Adrian; Just, David; Price, Joseph - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We link census records for millions of farm children to identify owner-operators of the family farm in adulthood, providing the first population-level evidence on intergenerational farm transfers. Using our panel of U.S. census data from 1900 to 1940, our analysis supports the primogeniture...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337837
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Going the Extra Mile : Farm Subsidies and Spatial Convergence in Agricultural Input Adoption
Kumar, Naresh; Kapoor, Rolly; Aggarwal, Shilpa; Jeong, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Many countries subsidize agricultural inputs but require farmers to travel to retailers to access inputs, just as for normal purchases. What effect do travel costs have on subsidy take-up and input usage, particularly for remote farmers? We analyze Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP), and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372461
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A Flexible Model of Food Security : Estimation and Implications for Prediction
Davis, Will; Xilau, Jose O.; Tchernis, Rusty; Gregory, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We propose a novel Bayesian Graded Response Model (BGRM) for food security measurement. Our BGRM has several attractive features. It produces continuous food security estimates and measures of estimation uncertainty at the household level. Unlike the USDA's official measurement model, the BGRM...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544738
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Risky Oil : It's All in the Tails
Baumeister, Christiane; Huber, Florian; Marcellino, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment … producer distress indices that signal the build-up of upside and downside price risk, and by conducting a risk scenario …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544801
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Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effect
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Mineyama, Tomohide; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576667