Matched transaction-level, credit-registry, and survey-based data reveal that consumers on average form excessively high (low) income expectations relative to ex-post realizations after unexpected positive (negative) income shocks. These extrapolative income expectations lead consumers to...

For decades, households' subjective expectations elicited via surveys have been considered meaningless because they often differ substantially from the forecasts of professionals and ex-post realizations. In sharp contrast, the literature we review shows household characteristics and the ways in...

Almost 50 million Americans are burdened by the need to repay almost $2 trillion in student loan debt, while at the same time having to save for retirement. This article analyzes the potential impact of the 2022 SECURE 2.0 Act reform which permits employers to match contributions for student...

Poor debt-management skills lower financial security and wealth accumulation. Because optimal solutions to credit repayment problems depend on neither risk preferences nor beliefs, loan repayment is a prime application for robo-advising. Vulnerable households, though, tend to distrust new...

Can incorporating expectations-based-reference-dependence (EBRD) considerations reduce seemingly dominated choices in the Deferred Acceptance (DA) mechanism? We run two experiments (total N = 500) where participants are randomly assigned into one of four DA variants--{static, dynamic} * {student...

Firm-level stock returns exhibit comovement above that in fundamentals, and the gap tends to be higher in developing countries. We investigate whether correlated beliefs among sophisticated, but imperfectly informed, traders can account for the patterns of return correlations across countries....

We study the relationship between homebuyers' beliefs about future house price changes and their mortgage leverage choices. From a theoretical perspective, whether more pessimistic homebuyers choose more or less leverage is ambiguous and depends on their willingness to reduce the size of their...

Wage garnishment allows private and public creditors to pull money directly out of a worker's paycheck to repay defaulted debt. Despite growing public concern surrounding the effects of strict debt collection mechanisms, a dearth of data has precluded empirical examination of the prevalence of...

Does automatic enrollment into retirement saving increase household debt? We study the randomized roll-out of automatic enrollment pensions to ~160,000 employers in the United Kingdom with 2-29 employees. We find that the additional savings generated through automatic enrollment are partially...

Unemployment is low and inflation is falling, but consumer sentiment remains depressed. This has confounded economists, who historically rely on these two variables to gauge how consumers feel about the economy. We propose that borrowing costs, which have grown at rates they had not reached in...