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We find that Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation, but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, and were only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480377
Voters punish incumbent Presidential candidates for contractions in the local (county-level) supply of mortgage credit during market-wide contractions of credit, but they do not reward them for expansions in mortgage credit supply in boom times. Our primary focus is the Presidential election of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453255
The US trade war against China in 2018-2019 can either enhance or diminish the US soft power in China, depending on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191093
Inversions--in which the popular vote winner loses the election--have occurred in 4 US Presidential elections. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely since the 1800s. In elections yielding a popular vote margin within one percentage point (which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480191
This paper studies how international trade influences U.S. presidential elections. We expect the positive employment effects of expanding exports to increase support for the incumbent's party, and job insecurity from import competition to diminish such support. Our national-level models show for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456773
We investigate the rise of the religious right in the context of the Moral Majority and Jimmy Carter, the first Evangelical President. During Carter's Presidency, the Moral Majority, an Evangelical group headed by televangelist Jerry Falwell, turned against the incumbent Carter, a Democrat, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576579
Collecting and analyzing panel data over the last four U.S. presidential elections, we study the drivers of self-reported happiness. We relate our empirical findings to existing models of elation, reference dependence, and belief formation. In addition to corroborating previous findings in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468278
This paper develops a model of news discernment to explore the influence of elections on the formation of partisan-driven parallel information universes. Using survey data from news quizzes administered during and outside the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the model shows that partisan...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056126
In 2018, the US launched a trade war with China, an abrupt departure from its historical leadership in integrating … global markets. By late 2019, the US had tariffed roughly $350 billion of Chinese imports, and China had retaliated on $100 …, China and other countries. This article reviews what we have learned to date from this work …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012629535
We study global trade responses to the US-China trade war. We estimate the tariff impacts on product-level exports to … the US, China, and rest of world. On average, countries decreased exports to China and increased exports to the US and … rest of world. Most countries export products that complement the US and substitute China, and a subset operate along …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794590