This paper is a revised version of a keynote address delivered at the inaugural International Industrial Organization Conference in Boston, April 2003. I argue that new econometric tools have facilitated the estimation of models with realistic theoretical underpinnings, and because of this, have...

We introduce a general approach for analyzing large-scale text-based data, combining the strengths of neural network language processing and generative statistical modeling to create a factor structure of unstructured data for downstream regressions typically used in social sciences. We generate...

Endogeneity is a primary concern when evaluating causal effects using observational panel data. While unit-specific intercepts control for unobserved time-invariant confounders, dependence between (i) regressors (e.g., marketing mix strategy of interests) and the current error term (regressor...

Recently there has been a great deal of interest in studying monetary policy under model uncertainty. We point out that different assumptions about the uncertainty may result in drastically different robust' policy recommendations. Therefore, we develop new methods to analyze uncertainty about...

To estimate causal effects from observational data, an applied researcher must impose beliefs. The instrumental variables exclusion restriction, for example, represents the belief that the instrument has no direct effect on the outcome of interest. Yet beliefs about instrument validity do not...

We survey and apply several techniques from the statistical and computer science literature to the problem of demand estimation. We derive novel asymptotic properties for several of these models. To improve out-of-sample prediction accuracy and obtain parametric rates of convergence, we propose...

The PPP puzzle is based on empirical evidence that international price differences for individual goods (LOOP) or baskets of goods (PPP) appear highly persistent or even non-stationary. The present consensus is these price differences have a half-life that is of the order of five years at best,...