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Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade : The S-Curve
Backus, David - 1992
We provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data: the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade, but positively correlated with past movements....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474721
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The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate : The J Curve and Trade Costs?
Alessandria, George A. - 2019
We study how changes in trade barriers contributed to the dynamics of the US trade balance and real exchange rate since 1980 - a period when trade tripled. Using two dynamic trade models, we decompose fluctuations in the trade balance into terms related to trade integration (global and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479517
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The US-China Bilateral Trade Balance : Its Size and Determinants
Feenstra, Robert C. - 1998
This paper has two aims. The first is to reduce the range within which the true U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit lies … estimation method that takes advantage of our access to detailed Chinese Customs data at the commodity level. For example, the … revised US-China bilateral trade deficit is $15 billion to $20 billion in 1994, and $16 billion to $22 billion in 1995 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472213
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The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment
Goldberg, Linda S. - 2006
The pattern of international trade adjustment is affected by the continuing international role of the dollar and related evidence on exchange rate pass-through into prices. This paper argues that a depreciation of the dollar would have asymmetric effects on flows between the United States and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466170
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The Dollar and the Trade Deficit in the 1980s : A Personal View
Feldstein, Martin - 1993
The sharp gyrations of the dollar and of the trade deficit in the 1980s were among the most novel and least understood economic developments of the decade. This paper, which was written as part of the NBER project on American economic policy in the 1980s, examines the reasons for the dollar's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474634
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The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting
Rogoff, Kenneth S. - 2008
Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that misinterpretation of some new out-of-sample tests for nested models, over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464525
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Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate
Ravn, Morten O. - 2007
Using panel structural VAR analysis and quarterly data from four industrialized countries, we document that an increase in government purchases leads to an expansion in output and private consumption, a deterioration in the trade balance, and a depreciation of the real exchange rate (i.e., a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465322
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Productivity, External Balance and Exchange Rates : Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism Among G7 Countries
Corsetti, Giancarlo - 2006
This paper investigates the international transmission of productivity shocks in a sample of five G7 countries. For each country, using long-run restrictions, we identify shocks that increase permanently domestic labor productivity in manufacturing (our measure of tradables) relative to an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466182
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Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and International Adjustment
Dooley, Michael P. - 2005
In this paper we examine the behavior of interest rates and exchange rates following a variety of shocks to the international monetary system. Our analysis suggests that real interest rates in the US and Europe will remain low relative to historical experience for an extended period but converge...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466900
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Current Accounts and Exchange Rates : A New Look at the Evidence
Leonard, Greg - 2001
This paper 'goes back to basics' in empirical analysis of the J-Curve. First, we document strong violations in the distributional assumptions that underlie nearly all previous work on this issue. Second, we employ distribution-free, non-parametric statistical tests to characterize the data and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470359