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When expected returns are linear in asset characteristics, the stochastic discount factor (SDF) that prices individual stocks can be represented as a factor model with GLS cross-sectional regression slope factors. Factors constructed heuristically by aggregating individual stocks into...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287376
Portfolio optimization focuses on risk and return prediction, yet implementation costs critically matter. Predicting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094879
We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for both financial economists interested in grasping...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322889
The core statistical technology in artificial intelligence is the large-scale transformer network. We propose a new asset pricing model that implants a transformer in the stochastic discount factor. This structure leverages conditional pricing information via cross-asset information sharing and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015194996
horizon predictability, and a low volatility of the risk free rate. The model combines a rich payoff structure with a habit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469492
I use a vector autoregressive model (VAR) to decompose an individual firm's stock return into two components: changes in cash-flow expectations (i.e., cash-flow news) and changes in discount rates (i.e., expected-return news). The VAR yields three main results. First, firm-level stock returns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470484
feature higher risk free rates, lower risk premiums on fully diversified and concentrated assets, less capital accumulation …, yet higher consumption and welfare. Exposure to undiversified firm risk can explain approximately 40% of the level and 20 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250139
This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model that captures the high expected returns on value stocks relative to …, but that shocks to the time-varying price of risk are not. As long-horizon equity, growth stocks covary more with this … time-varying price of risk than value stocks, which covary more with shocks to cash flows. When the model is calibrated to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467541
value premium is larger in "bad times," due to time variation in risk preferences; (c) the unconditional CAPM fails, because … with empirical evidence, the model shows that (a) value stocks are those with higher cash-flow risk; (b) the size of the … conditional CAPM and a Fama and French (1993) HML factor outperform the unconditional CAPM …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466855
linking the CIV factor to income risk faced by households. These three facts are consistent with an incomplete markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458588