fundamentals, focusing primarily on temperature. We show that when theory clearly identifies the fundamental, i.e., at temperatures …-thirds of the entire winter return variability occurs on these days. Moreover, when theory suggests no such relation, i.e., at … is good news for the theory and for market efficiency, not bad news. In terms of residual FCOJ return volatility, we also …

estimation period may be preferable to estimating specification parameters from all available observations. Finally, the hedging …

inquire systematically as to whether it may prove useful from the vantage point of participants in the weather derivatives … forecasts, but also the long-horizon density forecasts of maximal relevance in weather derivatives contexts. We produce and … evaluate both, with some success. We conclude that additional inquiry into nonstructural weather forecasting methods will …

comparable to that of returns in stock markets. Evidence is shown that there may be only minimal possibility of cross hedging … examined. Such markets, by allowing hedging of these aggregate income risks, might make for dramatically more effective …

We provide the first revealed preference estimates of the benefits of routine weather forecasts. The benefits come from … mortality events and weather forecasts for a twelve-year period in the U.S. Results show that erroneously mild forecasts …

of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We …

an unusual weather pattern depend crucially on actuarial models for determining event (e.g., default) probabilities. In …