Showing 1 - 10 of 2,630
Lagged GNP growth rates are poor forecasts of future GNP growth rates in postwar US data, leading to the impression that GNP is nearly a random walk. However, other variables, and especially the lagged consumption/GNP ratio, do forecast long-horizon GNP growth, and show that GNP has temporary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475603
Starting from the same level of productivity and per-capita income as the United States in the mid-nineteenth century … productivity has almost converged, its income per person has leveled off at about three-quarters of America's. How could Europe be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468028
We survey and assess the literature on the positive and negative effects of ethnic diversity on economic policies and outcomes. Our focus is on both focus both cities in developed countries (the US) and villages in developing countries. We also consider the endogenous formation of political...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468381
the capital stock, and the increase of multifactor productivity. I calculate a likely growth rate of 2.6 percent a year …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462967
In this paper, we examine the changes in per-capita income and productivity from 1700 to modern times, and show four …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470120
to underestimate of the rates of growth of real GDP, real personal income, and productivity. That underestimation is …This paper is not about the recent slowdown in measured productivity but that subject is discussed briefly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455375
In an 80-country panel since the 1960s, the convergence rate for per capita GDP is around 1.7% per year. This "beta … "iron-law" rate of 2%. In the post-1960s panel, estimation without country fixed effects supports the modernization … long-term panel with country fixed effects also supports modernization, in the sense of positive effects of per capita GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460366
-run effects of temperature estimated by panel models. The theoretical framework suggests that half of the negative short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463967
A more powerful version of the ADF test and a test that has trend stationarity as the null are applied to U.S. GNP. Simulated critical values generated from plausible trend and difference stationary models are used in order to minimize possible finite sample biases. The discriminatory power of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473018
A sleepy consensus has emerged that U.S. GNP data are uninformative as to whether trend is better described as deterministic or stochastic. Although the distinction is not critical in some contexts, it is important for point forecasting, because the two models imply very different long-run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473378