transitory income shock of unemployment. Instead, individuals smooth their credit card debt and overdrafts by adjusting …Standard economic theory says that unsecured, high-interest, short-term debt -- such as borrowing via credit cards and … consumption. We first use detailed longitudinal information on debit and credit card transactions, account balances, and credit …

-constrained investors to take excessive risks. Ignored are unconstrained investors speculating on higher prices during credit booms. To … encouraged a bank/brokerage-credit-fueled stock-market bubble. The direct effect is a 25 cent increase in a stock's market …

The market for corporate credit is characterized by significant seasonal variation, both in interest rates and the …

-time measures of economic activity. Importantly, the predictor set includes option-adjusted credit spread indexes based on bond … portfolios sorted by maturity and credit risk as measured by the issuer's "distance-to-default." The portfolios are constructed … portfolio credit spreads in the set of predictors--BMA consistently assigns a high posterior weight to models that include these …

a model for exploring credit risk diversification across industry sectors and across different countries or regions. We … find that full firm-level parameter heterogeneity along with credit rating information matters a great deal for capturing … differences in simulated credit loss distributions. These differences become more pronounced in the presence of systematic risk …

This paper is a theoretical study into how credit constraints interact with aggregate economic activity over the … not only factors of production, but they also serve as collateral for loans. Borrowers' credit limits are affected by the … prices of the collateralized assets. And at the same time, these prices are affected by the size of the credit limits. The …

evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then examine the role of global shocks and shock …

We propose a novel identification scheme for a non-technology business cycle shock, that we label "sentiment." This is … a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks that maximizes the short-run forecast error variance of an … shock produces a business cycle in the US, with output, hours, and consumption rising following a positive shock, and …