Inefficiency in the U.S. health care system has often been characterized as "flat of the curve" spending providing little or no incremental value. In this paper, we draw on macroeconomic models of diffusion and productivity to better explain the empirical patterns of outcome improvements in...

Variation in technology adoption is a key driver of differences in productivity. Previous studies sought to explain variations in technology adoption by heterogeneity in profitability, costs of adoption, or other factors. Less is known about how adoption is affected by bias in the perceived...

Many observers believe current aging baby boomers are woefully unprepared for retirement. Others raise the prospect that Americans are saving too much for retirement. This paper attempts to reconcile these contrasting views using a simple life cycle model and a more sophisticated retirement...

Do housing price fluctuations play an important role in the economic security of retirees, or is housing wealth just a sideshow to the determination of consumption and saving? Using panel data on saving from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and aggregate time- series data, I find that shifts...

Recent legislative proposals have included restoring Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) to their pre-1987 eligibility rules. Whether IRAs are simply tax windfalls with no effect on saving, or whether IRAs stimulate saving, is a crucial issue in evaluating the effectiveness of such proposals....

The efficient markets hypothesis has dominated modern research on asset prices. Asset prices and their intrinsic values differ in inefficient financial markets but difficulties in the measurement of intrinsic value greatly complicate market efficiency tests. Reflections on the measurement of...

Housing assets comprise nearly one-third of household wealth rot effectively escape income taxation. When housing is included in the life cycle model, the capital income tax is shown to be far more distortionary than previously thought. The reason is that capital income taxation stimulates the...

The recent appreciation in housing value can have large effects on aggregate saving. This paper uses a simulation model to show that aggregate saving will decline substantially if life cycle homeowners spend down their housing windfalls. Homeowners with a bequest motive, however, may save more...

We analyze admissions and transcript records for students at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges to study the relationship between standardized (SAT/ACT) test scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades. Standardized test scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope four times...

Non-experimental value-added models have been shown to yield forecast-unbiased estimates of teacher and school effects. To investigate, we propose a dynamic state-space model of knowledge accumulation, in which test scores are imperfect measures of knowledge, and students receive temporary and...