This paper conducts counterfactual historical analysis of several monetary policy rules by contrasting actual settings of instrument variables with values that would have been specified by the rules in response to prevailing conditions. Of particular interest is whether major policy mistakes,...

This paper explores several issues concerning a possible zero lower bound (ZLB) including its theoretical rationale; the magnitude of effects of low sustained inflation on real interest rates; the validity of analyzing monetary policy in models with no monetary variables; and the dynamic...

This paper concerns the minimal-state-variable (MSV) criterion for selection among solutions in rational expectations (RE) models that feature a multiplicity of paths that satisfy all of the model's conditions. It compares the MSV criterion with others that have been proposed, including the...

This paper argues that, in studying the monetary policy transmission process, more emphasis should be given to the systematic portion of policy behavior and correspondingly less to random shocks basically because shocks account for a very small fraction of policy-instrument variability. Analysis...

The optimal currency area (OCA) concept is central to the economic analysis of monetary unions, as it clearly identifies the relevant optimizing tradeoff: extension of the area over which a single currency is used enhances allocative efficiency but reduces the possibility of tailoring monetary...

Both academic thinking about monetary economics and the practice of monetary policy have changed dramatically since 1971-1973, when the rational expectations revolution was beginning and the Bretton Woods system was crumbling. The present paper considers whether the various changes that have...

This paper provides an outline of the historical development of Keynesian macroeconomics. It first argues that the business-cycle model of J.M. Keynes's General Theory featured analytical ingredients that were present in earlier writings and attained its theoretical precision only in...

This paper begins by identifying the distinguishing characteristic of the "real business cycle" (RBC) class of macroeconomic models. It then scruitinizes existing evidence, presented in support of the RBC approach, of three types: calibrated general equilibrium models with no monetary sector,...

This paper is concerned with the optimal inflation rate in an overlapping-generations economy in which (i) aggregate output is constrained by a standard neoclassical production function with diminishing marginal products for both capital and labor and (ii) the transaction-facilitating services...

The purpose of this paper is to review and evaluate the most important existing criticisms of policy strategies that feature adherence to money stock targets. Four main categories of criticism (and counterargumerits) are analyzed. The first of these involves the claim that accurate money stock...