distribution of earnings surprises, the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions, and in the predictability of non …

/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast …

cross-sectional variation. On average, the bias increases in the forecast horizon, and analysts revise their expectations …. We show that analyst expectations are on average biased upwards, and that this bias exhibits substantial time-series and …

This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We … next decompose the relative accuracy of these forecasts into three components: (i) noise, (ii) bias and (iii) analysts … both noise and bias are increase linearly. We then show most existing models lack a mechanism to account for these facts …

allows us to observe a long panel of managerial forecast errors for a sample of firms representative of the Italian economy …. We show that managerial forecast errors are <i>positively and significantly</i> autocorrelated. This persistence in … forecast error is consistent with managerial underreaction to new information. To quantify the economic significance of this …