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AI Adoption in a Monopoly Market
Gans, Joshua - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) prediction of demand by a monopolist firm is examined. It is shown that …, in the absence of AI prediction, firms face complex trade-offs in setting price and quantity ahead of demand that impact …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191089
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The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction : Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia
Bazzi, Samuel - 2019
Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479929
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Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination : Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and its Derivatives
Diebold, Francis X. - 2018
Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to selection of the set of forecasts to combine, and whether some form of additional regularization (e.g., shrinkage) is desirable. Against...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480620
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Answering the Queen : Machine Learning and Financial Crises
Fouliard, Jeremy - 2020
Financial crises cause economic, social and political havoc. Macroprudential policies are gaining traction but are still severely under-researched compared to monetary policy and fiscal policy. We use the general framework of sequential predictions also called online machine learning to forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482520
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Demand Estimation with Machine Learning and Model Combination
Bajari, Patrick - 2015
We survey and apply several techniques from the statistical and computer science literature to the problem of demand … estimates are considerably more accurate in out of sample predictions of demand than some commonly used alternatives. While … demand estimation is our motivating application, these methods are likely to be useful in other microeconometric problems …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457711
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Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It
Heller, Sara B.; Jakubowski, Benjamin; Jelveh, Zubin; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
This paper shows that shootings are predictable enough to be preventable. Using arrest and victimization records for almost 644,000 people from the Chicago Police Department, we train a machine learning model to predict the risk of being shot in the next 18 months. We address central concerns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334389
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The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction
Kelly, Bryan T.; Malamud, Semyon; Zhou, Kangying - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
The extant literature predicts market returns with "simple" models that use only a few parameters. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we theoretically prove that simple models severely understate return predictability compared to "complex" models in which the number of parameters exceeds the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334435
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Nowcasting World Trade with Machine Learning : a Three-Step Approach
Chinn, Menzie David; Meunier, Baptiste; Stumpner, Sebastian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based methods (random forest, gradient boosting) and their regression-based counterparts (macroeconomic random forest, gradient linear boosting). While much less used in the literature, the latter are found to outperform...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322806
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Financial Machine Learning
Kelly, Bryan T.; Xiu, Dacheng - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for both financial economists interested in grasping...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322889
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Predicting Insurance Demand from Risk Attitudes
Jaspersen, Johannes G. - 2019
Can measured risk attitudes and associated structural models predict insurance demand? In an experiment (n = 1,730), we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480452