policy anticipations and expected inflation effects are formally specified and compared to the estimated responses …'s short-run monetary policy. The expected inflation hypothesis implies that weekly money surprises should have persistent …

This paper develops two models, one involving risk neutrality and the other risk aversion, which suggest that inflation … evidence supports the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty affects interest rates. Interpreted in terms of the risk neutral … model, the empirical results suggest that inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on nominal interest rates and a …

This paper investigates the hypothesis that surprise changes in the money supply and anticipated inflation (the Mundell … surprises and expected real interest or an inverse relationship between anticipated inflation and expected real interest. These …

inflation illusion. Illusionary investors mistake changes in nominal interest rates for changes in real rates, while smart … moves with expected inflation. The model also predicts a nonmonotonic relationship between the price-to-rent ratio on … developed. We document that many countries experienced a housing boom in the high-inflation 1970s and a second, stronger, boom …

future path of inflation. Mishkin (1990) has recently shown that the spread between the 12-month and 3-month interest rates … helps to predict the difference between the 12-month and 3-month inflation rates. His approach however, lacks a theoretical … the problem of predicting the inflation spread. It is shown that the appropriate indicator of expected inflation can make …

We consider the puzzling behavior of interest rates and inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom between … World War I; the average inflation rate was 3.8 percentage points higher in the second period than in the first. Yet nominal … consistent with rational expectations if inflation were not forecastable, and indeed univariate tests show little sign of serial …

We use a unique design feature of a survey of Italian firms to study the causal effect of inflation expectations on … recent inflation whereas other firms are not. This information treatment generates exogenous variation in inflation … expectations. We find that higher inflation expectations on the part of firms leads them to raise their prices, increase demand for …

explained largely by changes in expected inflation. It presents and tests a model of expected, after-tax real interest rate … changes in anticipated inflation has been below levels anticipated by many investigators; (2) how the measured impact on … did so by an estimated 24 basis points);(4) inflation uncertainty produces no significant impact on interest rates due to …

of inflation, mortgage rates, and unemployment to the effects of communication about future inflation in a randomized … then provide 22 different forms of information regarding past, current and/or future inflation and interest rates … beyond one year do not have any additional impact on forecasts. Exogenous variation in inflation expectations transmits into …