Showing 11 - 20 of 39
We introduce a new text-mining methodology that extracts sentiment information from news articles to predict asset returns. Unlike more common sentiment scores used for stock return prediction (e.g., those sold by commercial vendors or built with dictionary-based methods), our supervised...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480131
We study the pricing of uncertainty shocks using a wide-ranging set of options that reveal premia for macroeconomic risks. Portfolios hedging macro uncertainty have historically earned zero or even significantly positive returns, while those exposed to the realization of large shocks have earned...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480268
Due to their short lifespans and migrating moneyness, options are notoriously difficult to study with the factor models commonly used to analyze the risk-return trade-off in other asset classes. Instrumented principal components analysis solves this problem by tracking contracts in terms of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660047
We propose a new asset-pricing framework in which all securities' signals are used to predict each individual return. While the literature focuses on each security's own-signal predictability, assuming an equal strength across securities, our framework is flexible and includes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481583
We review the literature studying interactions between climate change and financial markets. We first discuss various approaches to incorporating climate risk in macro-finance models. We then review the empirical literature that explores the pricing of climate risks across a large number of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482445
Several papers argue that financial economics faces a replication crisis because the majority of studies cannot be replicated or are the result of multiple testing of too many factors. We develop and estimate a Bayesian model of factor replication, which leads to different conclusions. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482648
Portfolio optimization focuses on risk and return prediction, yet implementation costs critically matter. Predicting trading costs is challenging because costs depend on trade size and trader identity, thus impeding a generic solution. We focus on a component of trading costs that applies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094879
We generalize the seminal Gibbons-Ross-Shanken test to the empirically relevant case where the number of test assets far exceeds the number of observations. In such a setting, one needs to use a regularized estimator of the covariance matrix of test assets, which leads to biases in the original...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015361441
The extant literature predicts market returns with "simple" models that use only a few parameters. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we theoretically prove that simple models severely understate return predictability compared to "complex" models in which the number of parameters exceeds the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334435
We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for both financial economists interested in grasping...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322889