We find that variation in expected U.S. productivity explains over half of U.S. dollar/G7 exchange rate fluctuations. Both correctly-anticipated changes in productivity and expectational noise, which influences the expectation of productivity but not its eventual realization, have large effects....

Studies of intermediated arbitrage argue that bank balance sheets are an important consideration, yet little evidence exists on banks' positioning in this context. Using confidential supervisory data (covering $25 trillion in daily notional exposures) we examine banks' positions in connection...

We characterize how risk evolves during a crisis. Using high-frequency data, we find that the first two principal components (PCs) of the covariance matrix of global asset returns experience large, sudden, and temporary spikes coinciding with well-known crises - Covid-19 pandemic, Global...

Foreign investors' changing appetite for risk-taking have been shown to be a key determinant of the global financial cycle. Such fluctuations in risk sentiment also correlate with the dynamics of UIP premia, capital flows, and exchange rates. To understand how these risk sentiment changes...

In this paper, we show that cross-border portfolio flows around the peak of the European Crisis induced households to rebalance their portfolios toward housing. Estimating difference-in-differences regressions around Draghi's "Whatever It Take" speech in July 2012 with household data from the...

We analyze a large number of industry- and company-level filings of global institutional investors to provide the first comprehensive estimate of foreign investors' U.S. dollar (USD) security holdings and currency hedging practices. We document four stylized facts. First, driven by increasing...

We study the role of exchange rates in industrial policy. We construct an open-economy macroeconomic framework with production externalities and show that the desirability of these policies critically depends on the dynamic patterns of externalities. When they are stronger in earlier stages of...

We analyze international trade and health policy coordination during a pandemic by developing a two-economy, two-sector trade model integrated into a micro-founded SIR model of infection dynamics. Disease transmission intensity can differ by goods (manufactured versus services and domestic...

We show that multinational firms transmit shocks across countries through their internal capital markets. We study a credit supply shock to parent firms in Germany. International affiliates outside Germany supported their parents through internal lending, became financially constrained...

China's remarkable run of persistently high growth in recent decades is all the more stunning in light of the country's low levels of financial and institutional development, state-dominated economy, and nondemocratic government. Notwithstanding the inefficient and risky growth model, the...