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A Computable Dynamic Oligopoly Model of Capacity Investment

Gowrisankaran, Gautam; Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper analyzes dynamic oligopoly models where investment is the principal strategic variable of interest, there are a large number of investment choices, and there are privately observed shocks to the marginal cost of investment. We show that simulation methods to compute these models can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544678

On Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions of Expectations

Boctor, Valerie R.; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Using data from a large survey of American households, we compare density forecasts elicited with bins- and scenarios-based questions. We show that inflation density forecasts are sensitive to the survey question designs used to elicit them. The within-person discrepancy is smaller, but still...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544685

From Predictive Algorithms to Automatic Generation of Anomalies

Mullainathan, Sendhil; Rambachan, Ashesh - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

highlight flaws in an existing theory and spur the development of new ones. Canonical examples include the Allais paradox and … the Kahneman-Tversky choice experiments for expected utility theory. We suggest anomalies can extract theoretical insights … from black box predictive algorithms. We develop procedures to automatically generate anomalies for an existing theory when …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544701

Trade Wars and the Optimal Design of Monetary Rules

Auray, Stéphane; Devereux, Michael B.; Eyquem, Aurélien - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Monetary rules may have a large effect on the outcome of trade wars if central banks target the CPI inflation rate or more generally changes in the relative price of traded goods. We lay out a two-country open-economy model with sticky prices where countries engage in trade wars. In the presence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544729

The Concave Phillips Curve

Kocherlakota, Narayana Rao - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper derives the curvature properties of the short-run Phillips curve in a class of canonical models of price-setting frictions. Contrary to conventional thinking, the Phillips curve is asymptotically horizontal for high levels of economic activity and asymptotically vertical for low...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544805

Exchange rates and international macroeconomics

Frenkel, Jacob A. (ed.) - 1983 - 1. [print.]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000043250

NBER macroeconomics annual

National Bureau of Economic Research - Chicago, Ill : Univ. of Chicago Press; 1986-2007: … - 1.1986 -

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008376285