We propose a model of cycles of distrust and conflict. Overlapping generations of agents from two groups sequentially … a sequence of bad actions originated. Assuming that both sides are not extremists, spirals of distrust and conflict get … this mechanism can be useful in interpreting cycles of ethnic conflict and international war, and how it also emerges in …

-degenerate higher-order beliefs) can lead to conflict and drive its dynamics. We develop our analysis in the context of three classic … learning about the opponent's type, as well as the possibility of conflict spirals, traps, and cycles; and a deterrence model …. We relate these models to the empirical literature and to current and historical episodes of conflict …

, whereas in other polities distributional disputes result in civil conflict. Theoretical analysis reveals that the following … between social classes without civil conflict: *Neither social class has a big advantage in civil conflict. *The expected … incremental costs of civil conflict are large relative to aggregate appropriable economic rents. *Both social classes are greatly …

ethnic conflict. A new type of bargaining failure due to multiple types of potential conflicts (and hence multiple threat … points) is identified. The theory predicts war to be more likely when resource and group concentration are high, and the …

A notable feature of post-World War II civil wars is their very long average duration. We provide a theory of the …