The Great Recession tested the ability of the "great U.S. jobs machine" to limit the severity of unemployment in a … live up to expectations. The level and duration of unemployment increased substantially in the downturn and the growth of …

Licensed workers could be shielded from unemployment during recession since occupational licensing laws are asymmetric …-in-differences event study research design that exploits cross-state variation in licensing laws to compare the unemployment rate between …, we find that licensing shields workers from a recession-induced increase in the unemployment rate of 0.82 p.p. during …

We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment … history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of …

This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study … the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next 18 months. Under a range of … distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. We find that in …

pandemic recession. We first measure the contribution of temporary layoffs to unemployment dynamics over the period 1979 to the … due to "loss-of-recall", whereby workers in temporary-layoff unemployment lose their job permanently and do so at higher … both temporary-layoff and jobless unemployment. The model captures well pre-pandemic unemployment dynamics and shows how …

data on employment, unemployment, labor force participation and gross job flows to document the gendered impact of the …

more severe. A higher unemployment rate around the time of retirement reduces Social Security income for those in the …

record rise in long-term unemployment may yield a persistent residue of long-term unemployed workers with weak search … effectiveness. Second, conventional estimates suggest that the extension of Emergency Unemployment Compensation may have led to a … modest increase in unemployment. Despite these forces, we conclude that the problems facing the U.S. labor market are …