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A Markov-switching model is fit for eighteen exchange rates at quarterly and monthly frequencies. This model fits well in-sample at the quarterly frequency for many exchange rates. By the mean-squared-error or mean-absolute-error criterion. the Markov model does not generate superior forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474755
Forecasting welfare caseloads, particularly turning points, has become more important than ever. Since welfare reform, welfare has been funded via a block grant, which means that unforeseen changes in caseloads can have important fiscal implications for states. In this paper I develop forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466994
We establish that the risk-return tradeoff of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ripple, and Ethereum) is distinct from those … of stocks, currencies, and precious metals. Cryptocurrencies have no exposure to most common stock market and … returns. Finally, we create an index of exposures to cryptocurrencies of 354 industries in the US and 137 industries in China …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012452844
crypto returns. Our results indicate that cryptocurrencies have substantial spillover effects on the real economy through …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322832
estimation method. Every period firms simultaneously select an action from a finite set. We characterize the set of Markov … conditions. We propose a simple estimation procedure which follows the steps in the identification argument. The estimator is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468972
Regime-switching models are well suited to capture the non-linearities in interest rates. This paper examines the econometric performance of regime-switching models for interest rate data from the US, Germany and the UK. There is strong evidence supporting the presence of regime switches but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472295
This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471074
This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization using estimates of illness probabilities in clinical choice...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660036
We integrate a high-frequency monetary event study into a mixed-frequency macro-finance model and structural estimation …. The model and estimation allow for jumps at Fed announcements in investor beliefs, providing granular detail on why … financial market risk. However, the structural estimation also finds that much of the causal impact of monetary policy on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210100
For the period 1860 to 1939, the simple correlation of the U.S. commercial paper rate with the contemporaneous inflation rate is -.17. The corresponding correlation for the period 1950 to 1979 is .71. Inflation evolved from essentially a white noise process in the pre-World War I years to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477147