This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We … next decompose the relative accuracy of these forecasts into three components: (i) noise, (ii) bias and (iii) analysts … both noise and bias are increase linearly. We then show most existing models lack a mechanism to account for these facts …

absolute accuracy measures for the survey respondents, regressions of actual on predicted values, and associated tests of bias … and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and …

firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as … closely with the consensus forecast, by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and by … issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst …

/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast …

additional tests, some of which utilize data on adverse health events, suggests that the forecast biases are at least partly due …

distribution of earnings surprises, the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions, and in the predictability of non …