We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...

We use a large cross-section of equity returns to estimate a rich affine model of equity prices, dividends, returns and their dynamics. Using the model, we price dividend strips of the aggregate market index, as well as any other well-diversified equity portfolio. We do not use any dividend...

We analytically characterize asset-pricing and consumption behavior in two-account heterogeneous-agent models with aggregate risk. We show that trading frictions can simultaneously explain (1) household-level consumption behavior such as high marginal propensities to consume, (2) a zero-beta...

The core statistical technology in artificial intelligence is the large-scale transformer network. We propose a new asset pricing model that implants a transformer in the stochastic discount factor. This structure leverages conditional pricing information via cross-asset information sharing and...

We combine a customized survey and randomized controlled trial (RCT) to study the effect of higher-order beliefs on U.S. retail investors' portfolio allocations. We find that investors' higher-order beliefs about stock market returns are correlated with but distinct from their first-order...

In this paper, I study asset prices in a two-agent macroeconomic model with two key features: limited participation in the stock market and heterogeneity in the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption (EIS). The model is consistent with some prominent features of asset prices...

It is often useful to price assets and other random payoffs by reference to other observed prices rather than construct full-fledged economic asset pricing models. This approach breaks down if one cannot find a perfect replicating portfolio. We impose weak economic restrictions to derive...

We examine asset prices and consumption patterns in a model in which agents face both aggregate and idiosyncratic income shocks, and insurance markets are incomplete. Agents reduce consumption variability by trading in a stock and bond market to offset idiosyncratic shocks, but transactions...