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We conduct a comprehensive analysis of unspanned stochastic volatility in commodity markets in general and the crude …-oil market in particular. We present model-free results that strongly suggest the presence of unspanned stochastic volatility in … stochastic volatility. The model features correlations between innovations to futures prices and volatility, quasi …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465916
We develop a tractable and flexible stochastic volatility multi-factor model of the term structure of interest rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466328
This paper develops a methodology for testing the term structure of volatility forecasts derived from stochastic … volatility models, and implements it to analyze models of S&P 500 index volatility. Volatility models are compared by their … ability to hedge options positions sensitive to the term structure of volatility. Overall, the most effective hedge is a Black …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473941
An efficient method is developed for pricing American options on combination stochastic volatility …/jump-diffusion processes when jump risk and volatility risk are systematic and nondiversifiable, thereby nesting two major option pricing … models. The parameters implicit in PHLX-traded Deutschemark options of the stochastic volatility/jump- diffusion model and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474344
We propose a novel time-series econometric framework to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in real time by combining polling data, economic fundamentals, and political prediction market prices. Our model estimates the joint dynamics of voter preferences across states. Applying our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015194984
the mean and volatility of equity returns. Our model assumes a small risk of a rare disaster that is calibrated based on … turns out to be crucial to the model's ability to explain both equity volatility and option prices. We explore different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459050
-dependent options and options on assets with stochastic volatility and jumps. " …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472561
information-based model demonstrates that the correlation of beliefs implied by analyst forecasts leads to return correlations … broadly in line with the data, both in levels and across countries - the correlation between predicted and actual is 0.63. Our … findings have implications for market-wide volatility - the model-implied correlations alone can explain 44% of the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457188
A number of studies have identifed patterns of positive correlation of returns, or comovement, among different traded …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469819
a regime-switching model and find evidence for the existence of a high volatility regime, in which returns are more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471745