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Currency Risk Premiums : A Multi-horizon Perspective
Chernov, Mikhail; Dahlquist, Magnus - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We review the literature on multi-horizon currency risk premiums. We show how the multi-horizon implications arise from the classic present-value relationship. We further show how these implications manifest themselves in the interaction between bond and currency risk premiums. This link is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322805
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Predictable Changes in Yields and Forward Rates
Backus, David - 1998
simple form with forward rates: as theory suggests, the largest discrepancies are at short maturities. (ii) Reasonable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472439
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Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements : A Bird's Eye View
Campbell, John Y. - 1989
The expectations theory of the term structure implies that the spread between a longer-term interest rate and a shorter … the longer-term bond tends to fall, contrary to the expectations theory; at the same time, the shorter-term interest rate … tends to rise, just as the expectations theory requires. We discuss several possible interpretations of these findings. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475890
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Rational Expectations, the Expectations Hypothesis, and Treasury Bill Yields : An Econometric Analysis
Jones, David S. - 1982
This paper tests the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and the expectations model of the term structure for three- and six-month Treasury bills. Previous studies are extended in three directions. First, common efficient markets-rational expectations tests are compared, and it is shown...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478242
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Expected Future Tax Policy and Tax-Exempt Bond Yields
Poterba, James M. - 1984
This paper tests several competing models of municipal bond market equilibrium. It analyzes the influence of changes in both personal and corporate tax reforms on the yield spread between taxable and tax-exempt interest rates. The findings suggest that changes in personal income tax rates have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477619
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On Expectations, Term Premiums and the Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates
Pesando, James E. - 1980
The paper first identifies how large must be the range in which ex ante yields on long-relative to short-term bonds vary if term premiums -- are to account for a significant fraction of the variance of the holding- period yields on long-term bonds. This paper then extends Shiller's bound to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478530
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Investors' Portfolio Behavior Under Alternative Models of Long-Term Interest Rate Expectations : Unitary, Rational, or Autoregressive
Friedman, Benjamin M. - 1980
This paper develops behavioral relationships explaining investors' demands for long-term bonds, using three alternative hypotheses about investors' expectations of future bond prices (yields). The results, based on U.S. 'data for six major categories of bond market investors, consistently...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478678
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A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
Greenwood, Robin - 2020
We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the supply of long-term bonds in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481468
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A Monetary Policy Asset Pricing Model
Caballero, Ricardo J.; Simsek, Alp - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We propose a model where monetary policy is the key determinant of aggregate asset prices (financial conditions). Spending decisions are made by a group of agents ("households") that respond to aggregate asset prices, but with noise, delays, and inertia. Asset pricing is determined by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334351
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Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models
Koşar, Gizem; O'Dea, Cormac - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
A growing literature uses now widely-available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models. In this chapter, we review this literature, with an emphasis on models of individual and household behavior. We first show how expectations data have been used to relax strong...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210122